Maybe you have only paid vague attention to the Writer’s Guild and Screen Actors Guild strikes. Maybe you are now fretting that some of your favorite shows won’t be back for years. (I’m looking at you, Evil and The Ambassador.)
The strikes are basically over how and what actors are paid as streamers take over from cable and to establish protections against AI taking jobs now done by human beings.
But the issues at stake are relevant to many areas of society as technology becomes not just tentacles wrapped around our institutions and our culture but have now become the bedrock of institutions and culture. And how do we even begin to cope with something that is “bedrock” when the operating system on your phone seems to get an upgrade every four weeks? How can a foundation be ever-shifting?
We behave as if our professions have been around forever in their current forms. But most of the professions, in the way they manifest now, are products of a stable, growth oriented, predictable manufacturing based economy. Actors and writers have been around forever. The TV and movie business have not. Teachers have been around forever (hello, Socrates) but the K-12 curriculum and extra curricular model we all assume as a given has not. I remember vividly many years ago when I was a new academic dean, speaking at a Walnut Hill reunion to alums where I told them that despite technological shifts, the essence of the teacher-student relationship is eternal and enduring. And while there is truth to that, it ignores the cultural context that is essential to discerning what a “good education” is.
In 2013, Netflix rolled out House of Cards and streaming took off. The cable bundle that had been an extremely lucrative television industry business model since the late 80s (which replaced the three national television network, ad based model) began to rapidly dwindle. According to the Pew Research Center, between 2015 and 2021, cable and satellite subscriptions fell by 20%, an industry free fall.
ESPN was the jewel of any cable bundle and build a sterling brand on that revenue. Now ESPN is in the news as it tries to focus and downsize to adapt to a new reality.
The music industry knew digital music was coming but they decided to make hay while the sun shone by bringing in the short lived era of the CD. But it took just two years from the introduction of a nimble Mp3 format in 1996 until Napster in 1998 to have it come crashing down.Two years!
And there are major business problems to be solved. Netflix is the only profitable streaming service; the rest are stacking up eye popping losses. And while this may be fine for Amazon Prime Video, which is a by-product of free shipping subscription service, it is not so fine for Disney. And Netflix is basically profitable because it was “first in” and has benefitted from bullish investors before the market got so crowded.
And crowded it is - especially as now YouTube and TikTok, platforms driven by creators with a very low bar to entry, are legitimate competitors for consumers’ viewing time.
We build edifices and then we are lazy and complacent and bad about renovations and retrofits - I always think of Ozymandias, toppled over in the sand. We are trading stability for convenience and expanded choice - and that’s not a criticism. I love my phone and I love streaming and much of the very good entertainment and art the golden age of television has brought with it.
You, like me, may be aware your faithful, aging sump pump really needs an upgrade, along with the addition of some helpful French drains, but you have so many other things to deal with! Hopefully it will get me through one more season. But it’s a risk.
So what are the lessons for schools from the WGA/SAG/Aftra strikes?
A. The world has changed and the future is ambiguous. Full stop. We can’t pretend anymore.
As I have been listening and reading different stories about the strike, the year 2015 comes up over and over again as the point where many aspects of the media landscape fundamentally shifted. Social media became an overwhelming force. Streaming ascended. Now giant, complicated tech companies rule and no one really knows how to deal with in terms of what these things are - are they a tech company like IBM was back in the day? Are they utilities, delivering a service? Are they entertainment/media companies? What is their purpose and how should they be regulated? It’s kind of scary.
That to me is a fundamental limitation when I read about people who frame their work as “futurists” - it’s very fun to think about cool or even shocking ways our life might change due to tech as we remain grounded by our current comforting reality. But what if that reality is completely inadequate to describe/contain/relate to such a new context? It’s like I always wonder why so often, aliens are imagined to be mammal-like with recognizable eyes, mouths, arms, etc. However this new normal evolves, it seems as if it’s developing its own rules rather than iterating old ones. As Hamlet says to Horatio, “There are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”
So we are operating in unprecedented ambiguity. I realize this is not an original thought.
I also realize it is not helpful for leaders to walk around feeling disoriented and unmoored by staring into that reality all the time. But it makes it all the more important to double down on values, to pay attention to the programs and practices that do show signs of traction and could really gain momentum with some investment, to not ignore the programs and practices that are diminishing and may need caring attention to fold up and put to bed.
B. We need revenue to pay people to do the good work
Bob Iger, the once and again Disney CEO, has had a long and successful career with a reputation as both a strong leader and decent guy, rare in the entertainment business. And now he is being pilloried by high profile actors because of his public comments such as “we have to look realistically at the business environment.”
If streamers don’t have a road to profitability, something will need to change. That’s the way our system works and it’s not just billionaires who profit - the stock market is, after all, where all our 401Ks are getting funded. I’m not saying I love it, but it is what it is.
But the larger point is - independent schools need enough revenue to at least cover costs, including for mundane things like deferred maintenance. There’s only so far you can kick that can down the road and be a thriving rather than a declining organization. And we need to be realistic about what it costs to deliver our programs - and with teachers in high demand, salaries are only going to increase.
C. Creating villains will not help kids
To continue on with Mr. Iger, to point fingers at individuals or groups just gets people cemented into positions. Is there truth to the fact these studio heads make an obscene amount of money? Of course! Is there truth to the fact that maybe both actors and writers are unrealistic that AI will have an impact on their profession? Of course! But making tart public statements is not going to help the industry reinvent itself.
And when we’re talking about independent schools, if administration and faculty get trapped in a depressing merry go round of finger pointing, it just drives the school into the ground. And this is way more important because the industry we’re talking about is the industry of nurturing and educating kids. It’s the life-change business. It’s the shape the world business. It’s the let’s support fostering decent human beings business. If everyone gets stuck in their positions, the kids get lost in the shuffle.
D. But there are always tactics you can employ now
The studios figured out an agreement with the Directors Guild. And given the vast sums of money in play, there are likely compromises the studios and the creatives can reach that will take some money out of the pockets of executives and put it into the pockets of the working actors and writers. And the conversations will continue as different aspects of this messy tech/entertainment world become clearer rather than living in fear of the unknown. A few years ago, a lot of people thought we’d all be heading into the Metaverse and that didn’t work out so well, did it?
I could not have told you in 2015 we were at an inflection point in terms of the media landscape. I have no idea what much of the landscape will look like in 2031. But we do have a pretty good idea of how to make some moves right now that will serve kids and attract mission match families and employees to your schools. There are hundreds of decisions that go into developing a budget. There are many decisions that go into cash management. And think of all the decisions involved with how/where/when to recruit and yield students.
We also can’t forget - there are schools who are really thriving in this current moment - what can they teach everyone else? What choices paid off? Which were dead ends?
I know independent school people don’t like to talk about our failures or dead-ends or struggles or admit to another school our school is struggling - that old “best year ever-itis.” But maybe if we did, if we could admit, yes this world is scary and unfamiliar and we all just want to lift up kids and provide a meaningful and humane career for the adults and THIS IS REALLY HARD. Suffering in secret with a happy public face is maybe the most soul draining experience ever. Maybe we could create a professional environment where schools could feel more free to double down on their strengths, really carve out those authentic and unique identities, and thrive. It would make that ambiguity a lot easier to tolerate if we were genuinely all in this together.
And now, a few updates…
Coming up in Talking Out of School!
There was a great response to last week’s piece from Dr. Beth Cooper Benjamin. August will bring my interview with Beth and probably a short-ish teaser on our Barbie thoughts. I just saw Barbie - and jeez - I was not prepared for the full on whackiness. The experience of watching it reminded me of nothing so much as seeing a cult film with my high school besties back in the day - like John Waters’ Hairpray era, or the original The Producers before The Producers went mainstream - full of liberal arts graduate in jokes and one liners - there’s an actual Proust joke - A PROUST JOKE- plot holes you could drive a truck through, no real character development or story and some super clunky feminist-lite politics. As a film it’s kind of a glorious mess IMO but who cares. Just give in to the unrelenting charm of the cast and revel in all the jokes about how easy men are to manipulate. We manipulate because we love, men! How did this film get made and then get a Marvel-verse level PR budget? Who knows but God bless. I look forward to revisiting this with Beth now that we’ve both seen it.
Also in process - a piece on “Do We Still Need Strategic Planning (Yes, Sort of, Sometimes)” (title in process). I have not done a personal essay since my dad passed in December but I’ve been feeling the urge again, so I hope to get to that soon. And I have a draft of a piece on women and leadership but I just can’t quite get my hands around it… it starts to sound trite and boring and whiny. I do have a title, from the Boygenius song Not Strong Enough: “Always an Angel, Never a God.” Now I just need to write an essay to live up to that title. Because that title is truth about women and leadership.
The Women’s Leadership Cohort program with my good friend and collaborator Jane Moulding is off and running. I am so excited to work with this group of fabulous female leaders. Pure joy.
I have space for a few coaching clients - schedule a free consultation.
A very gorgeous new website, courtesy of Blazar Design Studio, some exciting new programs and best of all, new strategic partners will get rolled out around Labor Day, give or take. And then there’s my thoughts about the future of Talking Out of School, still percolating, but moving to a paid subscription model is likely, maybe in 2024, so I can provide a walled garden for comment threads and help the like minded among us connect, among other features.
Lots going on at Stony Creek Strategy headquarters these days! I am grateful for you, my readers - your attention to these essays have made it all possible. Let’s all do good work for kids, shall we? And as always, feel free to reach out.
Happy August - the Sunday of Summer -
Julie